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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast

FinalESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV, YES, NESN

Away

Yankees

48-33

1–6

at

Home

Red Sox

34-46

NYY 47%BOS 53%

You didn't pick this one.

Fenway Park · ESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV, YES, NESN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.

BOS75%50%75%NYYStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Yankees
  • Jasson DominguezBatting1-3
  • Will WarrenPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Red Sox
  • Willson ContrerasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Payton TollePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Wong singled to left, Duran scored.1–6
  • 8Wells grounded out to second, Volpe scored.1–5
  • 6Wong hit sacrifice fly to center, Durbin scored.0–5
  • 3Contreras homered to left (418 feet).0–4
  • 2Gasper grounded into fielder's choice to first, Seigler scored, Cheng out at second.0–3
  • 2Cheng grounded into fielder's choice to second, Durbin scored, Wong out at second, Seigler to third.0–2
  • 1Contreras singled to center, Abreu scored.0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Red Sox 53%

Toss-upHit
NYY 47%BOS 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
BOS 53%
ML NYY +104 / BOS -125
Pre-line forecast
BOS 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS 47%
Ratings vs. market
−6.5 pts
BOS: Elo 46.6%, market 53.1%
Fair odds
BOS -113
NYY +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYY 4.1 – 4.4 BOS
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYYBOSWhy
Team rating15561508Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−16−10NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYY +24 EloNYY 53.4%
Market-implied ratingsNYY 51.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYY 51.8%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBOS 53.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox compared, with each team's league rank
NYYStatBOS
4th of 305.0Runs scored4.028th of 30
3rd of 303.7Runs allowed4.07th of 30
3rd of 30+1.4Margin−0.115th of 30
11th of 305–5Last 104–621st of 30
3rd of 3026–17Road vs home13–2530th of 30
24th of 301496Opponent Elo15045th of 30
3rd of 301556Elo rating150811th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

YankeesRed Sox
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYYBOS
Run line43–3734–45
Last 105–54–6
Favorite33–3415–30
Underdog10–319–15
Overs–unders35–40–535–41–3
Overs–unders, last 104–63–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYY 21–27 BOS in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 48.