New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jose CaballeroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Caleb DurbinBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Connelly EarlyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rafaela grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Monasterio scored, Eaton out at second, Narváez to third.3–6
- 8Eaton hit by pitch, Durbin scored, Narváez to second, Monasterio to third. Boston Red Sox challenged: call on the field was overturned.3–5
- 7Goldschmidt grounded out to third, Chisholm Jr. scored, Wells to second.3–4
- 5Durbin homered to left (344 feet), Contreras scored.2–4
- 5Duran hit sacrifice fly to left, Rafaela scored.2–2
- 5Contreras grounded into fielder's choice to third, Yoshida scored, Contreras second, Rafaela to second, Rafaela safe at third on fielding error by third baseman Rosario.2–1
- 4Caballero homered to left center (400 feet).2–0
- 1Domínguez singled to center, Goldschmidt scored, Rosario to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -148 / BOS +123
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -133
- BOS +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 3.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +11 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +43 Elo | NYY 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–16 | Road vs home | 12–2530th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301558 | Elo rating | 150512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–36 | 33–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 33–33 | 15–30 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–40–5 | 34–41–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 21–26 BOS in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 47.
- Jun 7BOS 1 @ NYY 6Picked NYY 57%Hit
- Jun 5BOS 5 @ NYY 3Picked NYY 56%Miss
- Apr 23NYY 4 @ BOS 2Picked NYY 58%Hit
- Apr 22NYY 4 @ BOS 1Picked NYY 54%Hit
- Apr 21NYY 4 @ BOS 0Picked BOS 52%Miss
- Oct 2BOS 0 @ NYY 4PlayoffsPicked NYY 58%Hit
- Oct 1BOS 3 @ NYY 4PlayoffsPicked NYY 64%Hit
- Sep 30BOS 3 @ NYY 1PlayoffsPicked NYY 55%Miss