New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Amed RosarioBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Caleb DurbinBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Duran singled to right, Yoshida scored.4–5
- 10Cheng hit sacrifice fly to right, Monasterio scored, Yoshida to third.4–4
- 10Seigler singled to right, Durbin scored.4–3
- 10Wells grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Rosario scored. Boston Red Sox challenged: call on the field was upheld.4–2
- 10Rosario singled to right, Schuemann scored on error, Rosario safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Abreu.3–2
- 9Goldschmidt grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Volpe scored.2–2
- 9Rice flied out to right, Caballero scored on throwing error by right fielder Abreu, Volpe safe at third on error.1–2
- 4Durbin singled to center, Abreu scored and Contreras scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML NYY -108 / BOS -112
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 48.4%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -102
- NYY +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.0 – 4.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +11 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +11 Elo | NYY 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | 0.011th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–19 | Road vs home | 15–2530th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301551 | Elo rating | 15138th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–39 | 36–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–35 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 35–42–5 | 35–43–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 21–29 BOS in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 50.