New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Max SchuemannBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Schuemann homered to center (412 feet).1–4
- 3Contreras doubled to center, Rafaela scored and Yoshida scored.0–4
- 2Seigler homered to left (339 feet).0–2
- 1Yoshida homered to right center (386 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML NYY -123 / BOS +102
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.9%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- NYY -111
- BOS +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 3.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −5 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +34 Elo | NYY 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.3 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–18 | Road vs home | 14–2530th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301553 | Elo rating | 151110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–38 | 35–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–34 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 35–41–5 | 35–42–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 21–28 BOS in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 49.