Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Yankees- Amed RosarioBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yerry De los SantosPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rosario homered to left center (378 feet), Domínguez scored and Jones scored.7–3
- 4McGonigle singled to left, Vierling scored and Dingler scored, McGonigle to second.7–0
- 2Lee singled to left, McGonigle scored and Vierling scored, Torkelson to second.5–0
- 2Dingler hit sacrifice fly to center, Outman scored.3–0
- 2McKinstry scored on error, Vierling safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Caballero, Outman safe at third on error.2–0
- 1Torkelson singled to center, Dingler scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 56%
- ML DET +117 / NYY -141
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.7%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -127
- DET +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.7 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −5 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +68 Elo | NYY 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 30th of 3012–28 | Road vs home | 22–157th of 30 |
| 13th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 18th of 301489 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–47 | 44–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–32 | 33–35 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 36–44–4 | 36–42–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 9–13 NYY in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.