Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Amed RosarioBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11McKinstry singled to right, Greene scored, Lee scored and Torkelson scored on throwing error by catcher Sánchez, McKinstry to third.6–2
- 11Torkelson walked, McGonigle scored, Lee to second, Greene to third.3–2
- 9Chisholm Jr. scored on Anderson wild pitch.2–2
- 9Chisholm Jr. scored on Anderson wild pitch.2–2
- 9Rosario homered to left (361 feet).2–1
- 6Greene hit sacrifice fly to left, Dingler scored, Carpenter to third.2–0
- 3McGonigle homered to right center (422 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 56%
- ML DET +117 / NYY -141
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.6%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -127
- DET +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −17 | DET: Troy Melton: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +32 Elo | NYY 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 30th of 3014–28 | Road vs home | 22–179th of 30 |
| 11th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15433rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–47 | 44–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–32 | 33–37 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 38–44–4 | 38–42–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 11–13 NYY in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.