Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike ParedesPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Grisham hit sacrifice fly to right, Caballero scored.2–5
- 7Caballero singled to center, McMahon scored.2–4
- 4Caratini singled to left, Clemens scored, Caratini to second.2–3
- 3Rice homered to right (357 feet), Grisham scored.1–3
- 1Grisham homered to right (370 feet).1–1
- 1Clemens homered to left center (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 67%
- ML MIN +194 / NYY -240
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.9%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -208
- MIN +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 5.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +5 | MIN: Mike Paredes: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +77 Elo | NYY 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 18th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 22–1810th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 26th of 301476 | Elo rating | 15403rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–44 | 44–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–20 | 33–38 |
| Underdog | 35–24 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 51–30–7 | 38–43–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–13 NYY in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.