Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting1-4
- Ryan WeathersPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Domínguez grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Grisham scored, Rice out at second.6–1
- 6Clemens hit sacrifice fly to right, Kreidler scored, Keaschall to third.6–0
- 6Martin walked, Lee scored, Keaschall to second, Kreidler to third.5–0
- 5Lewis singled to center, Keaschall scored and Martin scored, Bell to second.4–0
- 4Lee singled to left, Lewis scored.2–0
- 1Bell singled to right, Martin scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML MIN +114 / NYY -137
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −7 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +65 Elo | NYY 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 16th of 3021–24 | Road vs home | 23–1910th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 15383rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–45 | 45–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–20 | 34–39 |
| Underdog | 36–25 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 52–31–7 | 39–44–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–14 NYY in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.