Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan JohnsonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Neto homered to left center (396 feet).7–5
- 8Adell singled to right, Walton scored.7–4
- 7Yoshida singled to left, Rafaela scored, Contreras to second.7–3
- 7Abreu hit sacrifice fly to center, Seigler scored.6–3
- 3Contreras homered to left center (446 feet), Cheng scored and Abreu scored.5–3
- 2Neto doubled to center, Lowe scored.2–3
- 2Duran homered to center (422 feet), Durbin scored.2–2
- 1Adell singled to center, Guzman scored, Soler to second.0–2
- 1Soler grounded into fielder's choice to third, Neto scored, Guzman to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML BOS -163 / LAA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -146
- LAA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 3.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +41 Elo | BOS 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–21 | Road vs home | 21–2423rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 9th of 301512 | Elo rating | 145129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–48 | 43–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–33 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 36–30 |
| Overs–unders | 39–44–4 | 42–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 10–11 LAA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.