Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching7.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Abrams doubled to right, Ruiz scored and Chaparro scored, Mead to third.3–6
- 3Narváez hit sacrifice fly to right, Seigler scored.1–6
- 2Abreu hit sacrifice fly to left, Cheng scored.1–5
- 1Durbin homered to left (338 feet).1–4
- 1Contreras homered to left center (421 feet), Rafaela scored and Abreu scored.1–3
- 1Wood homered to right (441 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML WSH +148 / BOS -180
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.5%, market 61.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -159
- WSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | WSH: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +60 Elo | BOS 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 61.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–17 | Road vs home | 16–2530th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 26th of 301474 | Elo rating | 15147th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–33 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 16–31 |
| Underdog | 44–24 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 50–31–4 | 36–43–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–6 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.