Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4
- Walbert UrenaPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-4
- Bryce MillerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Raleigh walked, Crawford scored, Arozarena to second, Canzone to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 66%
- ML LAA +183 / SEA -225
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 60.4%, market 66.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -196
- LAA +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 2.8 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +4 | LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +73 Elo | SEA 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 66.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 3015–29 | Road vs home | 24–199th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 29th of 301456 | Elo rating | 15158th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–45 | 38–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 27–41 |
| Underdog | 35–29 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 41–45–1 | 41–42–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 19–25 SEA in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 44.