Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Heim hit a ground rule double, Kurtz scored, Langeliers to third.9–3
- 7Kurtz singled to center, Bolte scored.8–3
- 5Adell homered to right center (379 feet), Neto scored.7–3
- 5Langeliers singled to left, Kurtz scored.7–1
- 5Kurtz singled to center, Bolte scored.6–1
- 5Bolte singled to left, McNeil scored and Williams scored.5–1
- 5Williams singled to center, Muncy scored on error, Williams safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Lowe, McNeil safe at third on error.3–1
- 5McNeil singled to right, Butler scored and Heim scored, Muncy to third.2–1
- 4Walton singled to center, Meckler scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 51%
- ML ATH -114 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 48.4%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- ATH -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +18 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +11 Elo | LAA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 9th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 19–2122nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 27th of 301473 | Elo rating | 145929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–39 | 40–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–25 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 32–14 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders | 39–38–4 | 38–43–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 23–24 LAA in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 47.