Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Colt EmersonBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Robles singled to left, Young scored, Emerson to second.3–8
- 7Emerson singled to left, Arozarena scored and Rodríguez scored, Young to second.3–7
- 7Neto singled to center, Lowe scored and O'Hoppe scored, Walton to second.3–5
- 7O'Hoppe singled to center, Meckler scored, Lowe to second.1–5
- 6We. Wilson singled to right, Raleigh scored and Young scored.0–5
- 6Arozarena scored on Silseth wild pitch, Young to second on wild pitch by Silseth, Raleigh to third on wild pitch by Silseth.0–3
- 6Arozarena scored on Silseth wild pitch, Young to second on wild pitch by Silseth, Raleigh to third on wild pitch by Silseth.0–3
- 6Young singled to right, Naylor scored, Raleigh to second, Arozarena to third.0–2
- 6Arozarena singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Naylor to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 63%
- ML LAA +158 / SEA -193
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 60.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -170
- LAA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 2.9 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −5 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +76 Elo | SEA 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 28th of 3015–28 | Road vs home | 23–1910th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 29th of 301458 | Elo rating | 15138th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–44 | 37–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 26–41 |
| Underdog | 35–28 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 40–45–1 | 40–42–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 19–24 SEA in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 43.