Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan JohnsonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting3-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Young homered to right (406 feet), Naylor scored.2–6
- 6Canzone homered to right center (428 feet).2–4
- 4Raleigh singled to left, Arozarena scored and Naylor scored.2–3
- 3Young homered to center (412 feet).2–1
- 3Neto homered to left center (396 feet).2–0
- 1Guzman singled to right, Neto scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 64%
- ML LAA +168 / SEA -205
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.3%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -180
- LAA +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.1 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −5 | LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +59 Elo | SEA 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.011th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3015–27 | Road vs home | 22–1910th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 29th of 301460 | Elo rating | 151110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–43 | 36–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 25–41 |
| Underdog | 35–27 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 39–45–1 | 39–42–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 19–23 SEA in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 42.