Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-4
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Angels- Josh LoweBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sam AldegheriPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Meneses hit sacrifice fly to center, McNeil scored, Williams to third.1–4
- 2Lowe homered to right (403 feet), Grissom scored, Meckler scored and Peraza scored.0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 50%
- ML ATH -108 / LAA -112
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 49.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- LAA -102
- ATH +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.5 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −7 | ATH: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Sam Aldegheri: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +1 Elo | ATH 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–20 | Road vs home | 20–2222nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 27th of 301474 | Elo rating | 145829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–40 | 41–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–25 | 6–16 |
| Underdog | 33–15 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders | 40–39–4 | 39–44–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 24–25 LAA in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 49.