Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-4
- Payton TollePitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Eaton grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Contreras scored, Durbin out at second, González to third.10–2
- 8Durbin walked, Rafaela scored, González to second, Contreras to third.10–1
- 7Wood homered to left center (393 feet), Young scored and Millas scored.10–0
- 4Young doubled to left, García Jr. scored.7–0
- 4Lile grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Mead scored, Crews out at second, García Jr. to third.6–0
- 4García Jr. singled to left, Millas scored and Wood scored, Mead to second.5–0
- 4Nuñez homered to left center (372 feet).3–0
- 1Chaparro homered to left center (396 feet), Mead scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML WSH +128 / BOS -154
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.8%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -138
- WSH +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −5 | WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +54 Elo | BOS 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3027–18 | Road vs home | 17–2630th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 26th of 301477 | Elo rating | 15129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–34 | 37–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 17–32 |
| Underdog | 45–25 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 51–31–5 | 37–43–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–7 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.