Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Red Sox- Anthony SeiglerBatting1-4
- Connelly EarlyPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wood doubled to center, Ruiz scored.8–1
- 8Ruiz doubled to right, Nuñez scored and Lile scored.7–1
- 8Abrams homered to right center (402 feet).5–1
- 7García Jr. doubled to center, Nuñez scored and Ruiz scored.4–1
- 7Ruiz reached on infield single to first, Tena scored, Nuñez to third.2–1
- 5Wood singled to right, Lile scored, Ruiz thrown out at third.1–1
- 1Seigler scored on error, Contreras safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Mead.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML WSH +117 / BOS -141
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 61.5%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -127
- WSH +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +10 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +82 Elo | BOS 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–18 | Road vs home | 17–2529th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 27th of 301473 | Elo rating | 15167th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–34 | 37–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 17–31 |
| Underdog | 44–25 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 51–31–4 | 37–43–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–7 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.