Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Caleb DurbinBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Angels- Jose SiriBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Neto singled to right, Lowe scored.5–2
- 8Siri homered to right center (408 feet).5–1
- 5Durbin homered to left (358 feet).5–0
- 3Duran hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Durbin scored, Duran to first on error by first baseman Schanuel, Duran to second, González to third.4–0
- 3González singled to right, Abreu scored and Contreras scored, Durbin to third.3–0
- 2Duran hit sacrifice fly to left, González scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML BOS -105 / LAA -114
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- LAA: Elo 45.9%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +29 Elo | BOS 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 21–2221st of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Elo rating | 145529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–48 | 43–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–33 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 20–15 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders | 38–43–4 | 41–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–11 LAA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.