Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Angels- Josh LoweBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sam AldegheriPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rafaela doubled to left, Monasterio scored, Wong to third.8–1
- 5González homered to left (368 feet), Abreu scored.7–1
- 5Abreu doubled to right, Rafaela scored and Seigler scored.5–1
- 2Lowe homered to center (437 feet).3–1
- 1Contreras homered to left (421 feet), Seigler scored and Abreu scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML BOS -180 / LAA +148
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.8%, market 61.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -159
- LAA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.8 – 3.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −1 | BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Sam Aldegheri: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +48 Elo | BOS 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 61.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 11th of 3021–21 | Road vs home | 21–2322nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 9th of 301510 | Elo rating | 145329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–48 | 43–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–33 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders | 38–44–4 | 41–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–11 LAA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.