Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Kyle HigashiokaBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Siri singled to left, Guzman scored.13–1
- 9Peraza hit sacrifice fly to right, Adell scored, Guzman to third.12–1
- 8Higashioka homered to left center (389 feet).11–1
- 8Trout homered to left center (438 feet), Lowe scored.11–0
- 6Grissom doubled to right, Lowe scored and Neto scored.9–0
- 5Adell homered to center (433 feet), Trout scored and Grissom scored.7–0
- 5Grissom singled to left, Neto scored, Trout to third.4–0
- 4Adell homered to right (359 feet), Grissom scored.3–0
- 1Grissom singled to left, Neto scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML LAA +113 / TEX -136
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -123
- LAA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −6 | LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +56 Elo | TEX 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3015–31 | Road vs home | 21–2015th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301447 | Elo rating | 150413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–49 | 42–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 17–29 |
| Underdog | 36–32 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders | 44–47–1 | 42–42–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 18–25 TEX in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 43.