Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Hao-Yu LeeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carter homered to center (422 feet).4–10
- 8Malgeri singled to center, McKinstry scored.4–9
- 7Smith reached on infield single to shortstop, Osuna scored, Lopez to third.3–9
- 7Lopez singled to right, Díaz scored, Osuna to third.3–8
- 7Osuna singled to left, Carter scored, Díaz to second.3–7
- 6Smith homered to right (406 feet).3–6
- 5Lee homered to left center (383 feet), McKinstry scored.3–5
- 5Keith homered to right center (405 feet).1–5
- 4Duran singled to center, Jung scored.0–5
- 4Jung doubled to left, Lopez scored.0–4
- 2Duran hit sacrifice fly to right, Lopez scored, Jung to second, Foscue to third.0–3
- 2Jung walked, Osuna scored, Foscue to second, Lopez to third.0–2
- 2Díaz homered to left center (414 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 50%
- ML DET -110 / TEX -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 57.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -100
- DET -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +10 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +49 Elo | TEX 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3015–28 | Road vs home | 19–1816th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301498 | Elo rating | 150413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–47 | 40–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–32 | 15–29 |
| Underdog | 24–15 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 38–45–4 | 39–41–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 10–13 TEX in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.