Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran homered to center (423 feet).6–3
- 5Nimmo reached on infield single to shortstop, Lopez scored, Pederson to second.6–2
- 5Greene tripled to center, Dingler scored and Carpenter scored.6–1
- 5McGonigle scored on Ahlstrom wild pitch, Carpenter to second on wild pitch by Ahlstrom, Dingler to third on wild pitch by Ahlstrom.4–1
- 5McGonigle scored on Ahlstrom wild pitch, Carpenter to second on wild pitch by Ahlstrom, Dingler to third on wild pitch by Ahlstrom.4–1
- 5Dingler singled to center, Outman scored, McGonigle to third.3–1
- 4Greene homered to right (431 feet), Carpenter scored.2–1
- 3Burger homered to left center (447 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML DET -126 / TEX +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- DET: Elo 48.2%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −6 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +13 Elo | TEX 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3016–29 | Road vs home | 20–1916th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301498 | Elo rating | 150512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–48 | 41–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–32 | 16–29 |
| Underdog | 24–16 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 39–46–4 | 40–42–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 11–14 TEX in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 25.