Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Justin FoscueBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Osuna homered to right (364 feet), Duran scored and Foscue scored.3–8
- 8Foscue singled to left, Burger scored, Duran to second.3–5
- 8Duran singled to left, Smith scored, Burger to third.3–4
- 7Foscue homered to left (387 feet).3–3
- 7Meckler singled to left, Peraza scored.3–2
- 2Lopez singled to left, Carter and Osuna scored, Lopez to second.2–2
- 1Lowe singled to center, Soler scored.2–0
- 1Soler doubled to left, Schanuel scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 60%
- ML LAA +138 / TEX -167
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 63.3%, market 59.8%
- Fair odds
- TEX -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.1 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +11 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +95 Elo | TEX 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 29th of 3015–30 | Road vs home | 20–2016th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 29th of 301449 | Elo rating | 150213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–48 | 41–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 16–29 |
| Underdog | 36–31 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders | 43–47–1 | 41–42–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 18–24 TEX in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 42.