Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Justin FoscueBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Langford singled to left, Osuna scored.6–7
- 7Adell singled to left, Schanuel scored, Soler to second.6–6
- 7Soler singled to center, Trout scored, Schanuel to third.5–6
- 7Schanuel singled to center, Meckler scored and Neto scored, Trout to third.4–6
- 7Meckler singled to right, Guzman scored, O'Hoppe to second.2–6
- 6Foscue hit a ground rule double, Cauley scored, Osuna to third.1–6
- 4Foscue homered to center (429 feet).1–5
- 3Duran homered to center (419 feet), Nimmo scored.1–4
- 3Trout grounded out to shortstop, Meckler scored.1–2
- 1Burger singled to left, Jung scored.0–2
- 1Nimmo homered to left center (394 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 56%
- ML LAA +119 / TEX -143
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 60.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -129
- LAA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.5 – 4.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +11 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +72 Elo | TEX 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 29th of 3016–31 | Road vs home | 21–2115th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301452 | Elo rating | 150015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–49 | 42–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 17–30 |
| Underdog | 37–32 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders | 45–47–1 | 43–42–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 19–25 TEX in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 44.