Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bailey homered to right (384 feet).5–2
- 7Lewis homered to left (389 feet).4–2
- 7Rocchio doubled to left, Kwan scored and Bailey scored.4–1
- 6DeLauter homered to right (394 feet).2–1
- 5Gray singled to right, Lewis scored, Keaschall to second, Roden to third.1–1
- 2Arias homered to center (442 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / MIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +9 Elo | CLE 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 24–2315th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 13th of 301505 | Elo rating | 148421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–47 | 47–46 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 10–21 |
| Underdog | 32–16 | 37–25 |
| Overs–unders | 45–48 | 53–33–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 27–17 MIN in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 44.