Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Vaughn GrissomBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Martin grounded out to shortstop, Lewis scored.4–3
- 6Lee doubled to left, Bell scored, Lewis to third.4–2
- 5Grissom hit sacrifice fly to right, Heineman scored.4–1
- 5Schanuel singled to right, Meckler scored, Neto to second, Heineman to third.3–1
- 4Soler scored on a balk.2–1
- 4Soler scored on a balk.2–1
- 4Soler scored on a balk.2–1
- 4Grissom homered to left (369 feet).1–1
- 1Clemens hit sacrifice fly to right, Larnach scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML LAA +134 / MIN -162
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -145
- LAA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 5.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +5 | LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +63 Elo | MIN 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3016–32 | Road vs home | 24–2417th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 29th of 301451 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–49 | 47–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 10–22 |
| Underdog | 38–32 | 37–25 |
| Overs–unders | 46–47–1 | 53–34–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–12 MIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.