Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Denzer GuzmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Larnach homered to right (405 feet).2–4
- 7Guzman homered to left (357 feet).2–3
- 3Jeffers doubled to left, Kreidler scored and Larnach scored.1–3
- 3Larnach singled to right, Keaschall scored, Kreidler to third.1–1
- 2Lowe homered to right center (405 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML LAA +105 / MIN -126
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.0%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | 0 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +63 Elo | MIN 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 3017–33 | Road vs home | 25–2519th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 29th of 301451 | Elo rating | 148222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–50 | 48–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 11–23 |
| Underdog | 39–33 | 37–25 |
| Overs–unders | 46–49–1 | 53–36–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 7–13 MIN in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.