Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike ParedesPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bazzana singled to left, Manzardo scored.2–5
- 6Halpin hit sacrifice fly to center, Bazzana scored, Arias to third. Cleveland Guardians challenged: call on the field was overturned.2–4
- 6Hedges hit sacrifice fly to left, Watson scored.2–3
- 4Bell scored on error, Lewis safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Messick, Lewis safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Bazzana.2–2
- 3Rocchio singled to right, Kwan scored.1–2
- 3Kwan doubled to center, Hedges scored.1–1
- 1Jeffers homered to left (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML MIN +134 / CLE -162
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -145
- MIN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.6 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +5 | MIN: Kendry Rojas: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +66 Elo | CLE 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 15th of 3023–27 | Road vs home | 26–2416th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15025th of 30 |
| 24th of 301478 | Elo rating | 151110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–51 | 52–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–24 | 15–33 |
| Underdog | 38–27 | 37–16 |
| Overs–unders | 55–38–8 | 48–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 17–29 CLE in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 46.