Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ramirez singled to right, Busch scored, Hoerner to third.2–6
- 7Clemens homered to right center (391 feet).2–5
- 3Ramirez hit a ground rule double, Happ scored, Hoerner to third.1–5
- 3Hoerner singled to right, Suzuki scored, Happ to third.1–4
- 2Amaya doubled to left, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored.1–3
- 2Clemens homered to right center (371 feet).1–1
- 1Busch homered to right (402 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 59%
- ML MIN +135 / CHC -163
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.5%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -146
- MIN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.6 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +8 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +67 Elo | CHC 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 27–207th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 15324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–48 | 43–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–23 | 22–40 |
| Underdog | 38–25 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 53–38–7 | 49–43–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–4 CHC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.