Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lewis hit sacrifice fly to right, Martin scored, Jackson to third.1–10
- 4Hoerner singled to left, Busch scored.0–10
- 4Bregman grounded into fielder's choice to third, Suzuki scored on fielding error by third baseman Lee, Busch to second.0–9
- 4Busch singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Suzuki to second.0–8
- 3Ramirez singled to center, Hoerner scored.0–7
- 3Hoerner tripled to left, Busch scored, Bregman scored and Happ scored.0–6
- 2Kelly singled to center, Ramirez scored.0–3
- 1Bregman homered to left (383 feet), Suzuki scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML MIN +149 / CHC -181
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -160
- MIN +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.2 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +5 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +68 Elo | CHC 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.55th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 28–207th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–49 | 44–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–23 | 23–40 |
| Underdog | 38–26 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 53–38–8 | 49–43–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–5 CHC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.