Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Esmerlyn ValdezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Khristian CurtisPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bazzana homered to center (414 feet), Kwan scored.3–5
- 8Watson singled to right, DeLauter scored.3–3
- 8Rocchio scored on Soto wild pitch, DeLauter stole third.3–2
- 8Rocchio scored on Soto wild pitch, DeLauter stole third.3–2
- 8Rocchio scored on Soto wild pitch, DeLauter stole third.3–2
- 8DeLauter singled to right, Kwan scored, Rocchio to third.3–1
- 4Mangum reached on infield single to catcher, Lowe scored on throwing error by catcher Hedges, Flores Jr. to second. Cleveland Guardians challenged: call on the field was upheld.3–0
- 3Valdez doubled to right, Gonzales scored.2–0
- 2Lowe hit sacrifice fly to right, O'Hearn scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML PIT -111 / CLE -109
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.4%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -101
- CLE +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | −7 | PIT: Mason Montgomery: team allows 1.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +10 Elo | PIT 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 11th of 3024–23 | Road vs home | 24–2317th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15026th of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15099th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–50 | 50–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–31 | 14–32 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 57–38–3 | 46–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–7 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.