Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Esmerlyn ValdezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Reynolds singled to right, Lowe scored.2–3
- 5Turang doubled to center, Chourio scored and Ortiz scored.2–2
- 4Valdez homered to left (385 feet), Reynolds scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIL -148 / PIT +123
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -133
- PIT +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.8 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −1 | MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +50 Elo | MIL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–17 | Road vs home | 25–2415th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301570 | Elo rating | 149917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–42 | 45–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–35 | 20–31 |
| Underdog | 21–7 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 42–49–3 | 55–37–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 26–17 PIT in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 43.