Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras hit sacrifice fly to right, Chourio scored.8–4
- 7Turang homered to center (419 feet).7–4
- 6Walker homered to left (406 feet), Wetherholt scored and Burleson scored.6–4
- 4Nootbaar singled to center, Burleson scored.6–1
- 3Bauers homered to right (391 feet), Chourio scored and Turang scored.6–0
- 3Turang singled to right, Mitchell scored, Chourio to third.3–0
- 2Pratt singled to center, Vaughn scored, Frelick to second.2–0
- 2Frelick singled to right, Bauers scored, Vaughn to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML MIL -126 / STL +104
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +12 | MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +54 Elo | MIL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3029–16 | Road vs home | 24–2415th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301569 | Elo rating | 149617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–42 | 53–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 30–35 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 20–7 | 43–19 |
| Overs–unders | 40–49–3 | 38–48–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 30–18 STL in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 48.