Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting3-5
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Moreno grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Troy scored, Carroll out at second, Perdomo to third.3–2
- 7Ortiz singled to right, Sánchez scored.3–1
- 7Bauers homered to right center (400 feet), Frelick scored.2–1
- 1Carroll doubled to right, Perdomo scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -122 / ARI +101
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.3%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -110
- ARI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +20 | MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +30 Elo | MIL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3025–15 | Road vs home | 26–187th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301566 | Elo rating | 149518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–38 | 47–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–31 | 16–24 |
| Underdog | 19–7 | 31–17 |
| Overs–unders | 39–45–3 | 35–46–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 11–16 ARI in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 27.