San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor McDonaldPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carroll grounded out to first, Marte scored.6–4
- 8Marte doubled to left, Troy scored on throwing error by shortstop Koss and Smith scored, Marte to third.6–3
- 8Smith singled to left, Arenado scored.6–1
- 6Cavanaugh singled to center, Lee scored, Bericoto to third.6–0
- 6Lee singled to right, Ramos scored.5–0
- 6Ramos tripled to center, Devers scored. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.4–0
- 5Bericoto homered to left center (422 feet), Lee scored.3–0
- 5Ramos homered to center (427 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML SF +114 / ARI -137
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- SF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −19 | SF: Trevor McDonald: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +12 Elo | ARI 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 26th of 3017–28 | Road vs home | 25–167th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 149816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–46 | 46–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 16–23 |
| Underdog | 28–27 | 30–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–40–7 | 33–45–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 18–29 ARI in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 47.