San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cavanaugh singled to right, Eldridge scored.4–5
- 9Ramos homered to left center (415 feet).3–5
- 8Schmitt hit sacrifice fly to center, Gilbert scored, Arraez to third.2–5
- 6Arenado homered to left (397 feet).1–5
- 5Perdomo doubled to left, Arenado scored, Marte scored and Troy scored.1–4
- 5Cox hit sacrifice bunt, Bericoto scored.1–1
- 1Marte homered to right (367 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML SF +113 / ARI -136
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -123
- SF +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +20 | SF: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +44 Elo | ARI 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3017–26 | Road vs home | 23–167th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301483 | Elo rating | 149416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–45 | 45–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 15–22 |
| Underdog | 27–26 | 30–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–40–6 | 32–45–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 18–27 ARI in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 45.