San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moreno singled to center, Barrosa scored, Carroll to third.2–8
- 7Devers homered to left center (424 feet).2–7
- 6Marte homered to right (431 feet).1–7
- 6Arraez homered to right (399 feet).1–6
- 3Marte singled to left, Arenado scored and Kepler scored, Barrosa to second.0–6
- 3Barrosa walked, Moreno scored, Arenado to second, Kepler to third.0–4
- 1Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (389 feet), Perdomo scored and Moreno scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML SF -101 / ARI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.5%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −13 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +31 Elo | ARI 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 26th of 3017–27 | Road vs home | 24–167th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301482 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–45 | 45–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 15–23 |
| Underdog | 28–26 | 30–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–40–7 | 32–45–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 18–28 ARI in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 46.