Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Ildemaro VargasBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Jose CabreraPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Vargas singled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored.7–4
- 11Turang singled to left, Yelich scored and Chourio scored, Turang to second.7–3
- 11Chourio reached on infield single to pitcher, Perkins scored and Pratt scored on throwing error by pitcher Thompson, Chourio to second, Yelich safe at third on error.5–3
- 3Arenado doubled to left, Carroll scored and Moreno scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.3–3
- 3Moreno singled to right, Marte scored, Carroll to third.3–1
- 3Bauers singled to right, Turang scored, Contreras to second.3–0
- 2Mitchell homered to center (435 feet), Bauers scored. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIL -136 / ARI +113
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -123
- ARI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Jose Cabrera: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +47 Elo | MIL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3024–14 | Road vs home | 25–177th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301566 | Elo rating | 149617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–37 | 46–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–30 | 16–24 |
| Underdog | 19–7 | 30–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–44–3 | 34–45–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 10–15 ARI in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.