Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Adrian Del CastilloBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chourio homered to left center (410 feet).3–4
- 8Vargas doubled to left, Barrosa scored.2–4
- 5Yelich homered to right center (418 feet), Turang scored.2–3
- 1Del Castillo homered to right (414 feet), Carroll scored and Moreno scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML MIL -167 / ARI +138
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.2%, market 59.8%
- Fair odds
- MIL -149
- ARI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −3 | MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +65 Elo | MIL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3025–14 | Road vs home | 25–187th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301568 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–37 | 46–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–30 | 16–24 |
| Underdog | 19–7 | 30–17 |
| Overs–unders | 39–44–3 | 35–45–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 11–15 ARI in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 26.