Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Cooper PrattBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pratt hit sacrifice fly to left, Mitchell scored.1–5
- 6Burleson homered to right (443 feet), Walker scored.0–5
- 4Fermín homered to left center (404 feet).0–3
- 1Burleson doubled to right, Walker scored.0–2
- 1Walker doubled to right, Winn scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIL -149 / STL +124
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.0%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -134
- STL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 3.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +56 Elo | MIL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3029–15 | Road vs home | 23–2420th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301572 | Elo rating | 149318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–41 | 52–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–34 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 20–7 | 42–19 |
| Overs–unders | 40–48–3 | 38–47–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 30–17 STL in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 47.