Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bruce ZimmermannPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Yelich doubled to left, Pratt scored, Ortiz to third.4–3
- 6Mitchell singled to center, Bauers scored, Mitchell to second. St Louis Cardinals challenged: call on the field was upheld.3–3
- 3Herrera homered to left (378 feet).2–3
- 3Yelich singled to center, Ortiz scored.2–2
- 3Ortiz doubled to left, Pratt scored.1–2
- 1Walker homered to left (386 feet), Wetherholt scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 65%
- ML MIL -211 / STL +172
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.9%, market 64.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -185
- STL +185 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 3.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +2 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matt Svanson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +63 Elo | MIL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 64.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–15 | Road vs home | 23–2214th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301568 | Elo rating | 149718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–40 | 51–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–33 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 19–7 | 41–19 |
| Overs–unders | 39–47–3 | 37–46–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 28–17 STL in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 45.