Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- David HamiltonBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Jose FerminBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Turang singled to left, Ortiz scored and Yelich scored, Chourio to second.4–3
- 7Hamilton doubled to right, Mitchell scored and Frelick scored, Pratt to third.2–3
- 6Winn singled to left, Velázquez scored.0–3
- 3Fermín singled to center, Wetherholt scored, Velázquez to third.0–2
- 3Velázquez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Pagés scored, Walker out at second, Wetherholt to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -122 / STL +101
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.4%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -110
- STL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 3.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +45 Elo | MIL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 23–2112th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301567 | Elo rating | 149717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–39 | 50–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–32 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 19–7 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 39–46–3 | 37–45–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 27–17 STL in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 44.