Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Nelson VelazquezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pratt doubled to left, Chourio scored and Sánchez scored.10–2
- 7Chourio singled to center, Mitchell scored, Sánchez to second.8–2
- 7Sánchez singled to left, Turang scored and Vaughn scored, Mitchell to third.7–2
- 7Turang doubled to center, Lara scored.5–2
- 7Ortiz homered to left center (415 feet).4–2
- 6Velázquez homered to center (403 feet), Walker scored.3–2
- 5Lara singled to right, Pratt scored and Sánchez scored, Lara to second, Ortiz to third.3–0
- 3Yelich grounded out to shortstop, Pratt scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML MIL -107 / STL -112
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- STL: Elo 42.9%, market 50.5%
- Fair odds
- STL -102
- MIL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +1 | MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +50 Elo | MIL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–15 | Road vs home | 23–2316th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301569 | Elo rating | 149618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–41 | 52–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–34 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 19–7 | 42–19 |
| Overs–unders | 39–48–3 | 37–47–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 29–17 STL in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 46.