Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Mauricio DubonBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Connor ThomasPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting4-5, 3 HR, 10 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yastrzemski singled to right, Smith scored and Riley scored.4–12
- 8Gonzales singled to left, Valdez scored, Cook to second.2–12
- 7Lowe singled to center, Callihan scored, Triolo to second.2–11
- 6O'Hearn homered to right (373 feet), Mangum scored and Lowe scored.2–10
- 3O'Hearn homered to center (415 feet), Reynolds scored and Valdez scored.2–7
- 3Albies singled to center, Harris II scored.2–4
- 1O'Hearn homered to right center (384 feet), Mangum scored, Lowe scored and Reynolds scored.1–4
- 1Dubón singled to right, Olson scored, Baldwin to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML ATL +124 / PIT -149
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.3%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -134
- ATL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.9 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −8 | ATL: Hurston Waldrep: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +2 Elo | PIT 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.46th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–19 | Road vs home | 23–2214th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 5th of 301527 | Elo rating | 149916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–38 | 44–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–30 | 19–28 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 42–41–6 | 52–36–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 12–10 PIT in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.