Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gonzales doubled to right, Valdez scored.5–9
- 9Valdez doubled to right, Reynolds scored.4–9
- 9Reynolds doubled to center, Lowe scored.3–9
- 9Lowe doubled to right, Triolo scored.2–9
- 8Lile homered to right (375 feet), Crews scored.1–9
- 7García Jr. homered to right (413 feet), Nuñez scored.1–7
- 3Lile doubled to right, Abrams scored.1–5
- 3Tena homered to center (434 feet), Wood scored.1–4
- 3Reynolds homered to center (426 feet).1–2
- 2Lile homered to center (417 feet).0–2
- 1García Jr. homered to right (395 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML PIT +124 / WSH -150
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 51.3%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -134
- PIT +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.4 – 5.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +9 Elo | WSH 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3021–22 | Road vs home | 17–2529th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Elo rating | 148025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–46 | 54–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 24–18 | 46–25 |
| Overs–unders | 50–35–3 | 52–31–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 15–10 WSH in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 25.