New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harris II homered to right center (386 feet).3–14
- 8Riley homered to right (362 feet), Dubón scored and Albies scored.3–13
- 7Yastrzemski homered to right (420 feet), Harris II scored.3–10
- 6Dubón grounded out to second, Bart scored, Mateo to second.3–8
- 6Bart doubled to center, Yastrzemski scored.3–7
- 6Vientos homered to left center (396 feet), Bichette scored.3–6
- 5Taylor homered to left center (404 feet).1–6
- 4Dubón homered to left (365 feet).0–6
- 3Olson scored on error, Riley scored on error and Harris II scored on error, White safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Taylor, White safe at second on error.0–5
- 3Harris II singled to right, Baldwin scored, Riley to second, Olson to third.0–2
- 2White homered to left (358 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 64%
- ML NYM +162 / ATL -198
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.4%, market 63.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -174
- NYM +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.4 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +14 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +88 Elo | ATL 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3017–28 | Road vs home | 26–165th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301481 | Elo rating | 15276th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–49 | 50–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 32–28 |
| Underdog | 18–17 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 39–40–9 | 39–41–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 16–27 ATL in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 43.