New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Luis UriasBatting2-3
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baty hit sacrifice fly to center, Ewing scored.3–0
- 7Torrens homered to right (375 feet).2–0
- 5Alvarez homered to center (415 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML NYM -117 / TOR -103
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 45.5%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- NYM -106
- TOR +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −9 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +31 Elo | TOR 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 26th of 3016–26 | Road vs home | 23–2419th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301482 | Elo rating | 150811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–47 | 41–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 18–30 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–38–9 | 42–39–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 5–5 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.