New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-4
- Trey YesavagePitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lindor homered to right (378 feet).1–2
- 5Straw hit sacrifice fly to center, Urías scored.0–2
- 1Springer tripled to center, Springer scored on fielding error by center fielder Ewing.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML NYM +104 / TOR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.7%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -113
- NYM +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −3 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +54 Elo | TOR 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 24th of 3016–25 | Road vs home | 22–2422nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 24th of 301483 | Elo rating | 150712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–47 | 41–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 18–29 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–37–9 | 42–38–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 5–4 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.