New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Carson BengeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Myles StrawBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lindor homered to left (408 feet).3–9
- 8Benge homered to left center (406 feet), Baty scored.2–9
- 7Straw homered to left center (397 feet), Varsho scored and Kirk scored.0–9
- 7Varsho singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.0–6
- 3Keys homered to left (349 feet), Kirk scored and Clement scored.0–5
- 3Clement doubled to right, Okamoto scored, Kirk to third.0–2
- 1Okamoto reached on infield single to shortstop, Lukes scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML NYM -105 / TOR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +6 | NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Braydon Fisher: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +48 Elo | TOR 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3017–26 | Road vs home | 23–2522nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 30 |
| 21st of 301485 | Elo rating | 150612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–47 | 41–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 18–31 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–39–9 | 42–40–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–5 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.