New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bichette singled to right, Torrens scored, Soto to third.3–5
- 8Olson homered to right (411 feet).2–5
- 5Olson homered to right center (429 feet).2–4
- 3Albies homered to right (386 feet).2–3
- 3Soto homered to left (359 feet), Ewing scored.2–2
- 2Harris II homered to center (419 feet), Dubón scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML NYM -101 / ATL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.0%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −1 | NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +49 Elo | ATL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 25th of 3017–27 | Road vs home | 25–166th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301482 | Elo rating | 15256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–48 | 49–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 31–28 |
| Underdog | 18–16 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 39–39–9 | 39–40–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 16–26 ATL in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 42.